微地震速度模型和高精度定位贝叶斯反演方法

       微地震监测技术是评估非常规油气水力压裂裂缝发展的重要手段。 速度模型的准确性对微地震成像结果起着举足轻重的作用。 传统方法根据声波测井信号建立初始模型，然后利用射孔事件信息进一步优化速度模型。 该方法受限于射孔事件个数较少和射线路径覆盖范围较窄， 反演过程中稳定性较差，遇到复杂地层时反演误差较大，严重影响微地震事件定位精度。 为了提高微地震事件定位准确度，本文在利用微地震信号约束反演过程的基础上， 以灵活优化速度模型的层位结构和速度值为出发点， 探讨了复杂地质条件下的速度模型校正方法和微地震事件定位精度提升手段， 并致力于满足实际微地震监测的需求， 主要获得了以下几个成果：

        针对复杂地质条件下初始速度模型误差较大、 微地震事件定位精度较差的难题，本文首次将贝叶斯变维方法应用于井中速度模型校正， 反演过程中同时优化速度模型的层位个数、深度以及各层速度值，在射孔事件和微地震事件等有效信号的约束下， 获得稀疏的等效速度模型。 理论和实际数据应用均表明，该方法受声波测井信息影响较小， 可以有效提高微地震事件定位精度。
        速度模型和微地震事件位置联合反演存在折衷风险， 为了防止微地震事件定位结果出现系统偏差， 本文将主事件定位方法和贝叶斯速度参数推导方法相结合，提出了增量虚拟主事件(IPM)方法。 IPM 方法迭代优化微地震事件位置和速度模型精度， 减少了反演参数个数，保证反演稳定性。 理论和实际数据应用
均表明， IPM 方法适用于不同地质条件速度模型优化， 成倍级减小了微地震事件定位偏差。
       当遇到水力压裂地区存在强各向异性特征严重影响微地震事件定位精度时，本文基于 IPM 方法推断了 VTI 介质各向异性参数。 在固定维反演测试中， IPM方法定量预测了各向异性参数的不确定性。 在变维反演测试中， IPM 方法成功获得稀疏的等效各向异性速度模型， 减少了微地震事件定位偏差。
       针对贝叶斯反演中应用 MCMC 采样方法需要多次迭代、影响计算速率的问题， 本文结合打靶法原理简单和最短路径法对速度结构适用性强的特点，开发了适于多个检波器走时快速计算的各向同性和 VTI 介质射线追踪算法。 该算法简洁高效，用稀疏的节点推断出高精度的走时和射线路径， 有助于提升速度模
型反演效率，便于实时定位。

      本文提出的速度校正方法克服了传统方法约束信息少、 速度模型适用性差、定位误差大、反演效率低的问题，适用于复杂地质条件下的微地震监测， 减少了微地震事件定位偏差到十米量级，反演效率提升了数十倍。 适合于实际水力压裂生产，为提高非常规能源油气采收率提供了有效的保障。
 

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