Flood forecasting methods for a semi-arid and semi-humid area in Northern China

Zhu，Xueping1; Zhang，Yu1,2; Qi，Wei3; Liang，Yankuan1; Zhao，Xuehua1; Cai，Wenjun1; Li，Yang1

2022

10.1111/jfr3.12831

Journal of Flood Risk Management   Impact Factor & Quartile

1753-318X

1753-318X

The Double-Excess (DE) model is a flood forecasting model which was developed to reflect the characteristics of runoff generation in semi-arid and semi-humid areas. However, the empirical unit hydrograph used in the subbasin confluence module often has low precision because of the difficulty associated with parameter quantification. This study improves the subbasin confluence module of the DE model by coupling the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) to establish the improved DE model (DE-GIUH) to calculate the subbasin confluence based on topographic physical characteristics. The improved model is applied to the Wangjiahui Hydrological Station Basin in Northern China. Compared with the conventional DE model and the widely used hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) model, the results show that DE-GIUH improved flood forecasting, including the component peak discharge, flood peak appearance time and flood progress. The qualified rate (QR) of all three models reached grade A (QR ≥ 85.0%). However, the proportion of the deterministic coefficient (DC) reaching grade B or above (DC ≥ 0.70) improved from 50% (HEC-HMS) and 30% (DE) to 90% (DE-GIUH) in the calibration period, and from 62.5% and 25% to 75% in the validation period. In particular, for large and medium floods, the proportion of DC reaching grade B and above is 100% for DE-GIUH, which is much higher than that of the other two models. The proposed improved model provides an alternative method for flood prediction in ungauged areas.

double-excess model flood forecasting geomorphic instantaneous unit hydrograph HEC-HMS semi-arid and semi-humid areas

SCI

English

Corresponding

National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC0408601] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province, China[201901D111060] ; Shanxi Provincial Department of Water Resources, China[202125033,"TZ2019010"]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources

Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources

WOS:000818527800001

WILEY

2-s2.0-85133090657

Scopus

1.College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan,China
2.Liaoning Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Research Institute Co. Ltd,Shenyang,China
3.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China

Zhu，Xueping,Zhang，Yu,Qi，Wei,et al. Flood forecasting methods for a semi-arid and semi-humid area in Northern China[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management,2022.

Zhu，Xueping.,Zhang，Yu.,Qi，Wei.,Liang，Yankuan.,Zhao，Xuehua.,...&Li，Yang.(2022).Flood forecasting methods for a semi-arid and semi-humid area in Northern China.Journal of Flood Risk Management.

Zhu，Xueping,et al."Flood forecasting methods for a semi-arid and semi-humid area in Northern China".Journal of Flood Risk Management (2022).