Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai

Xu, Hanqing1,2,3,4; Tian, Zhan3,5; Sun, Laixiang6,7; Ye, Qinghua4,8; Ragno, Elisa4; Bricker, Jeremy4,9; Mao, Ganquan3; Tan, Jinkai10,11; Wang, Jun1,2; Ke, Qian4; Wang, Shuai12; Toumi, Ralf12

2022-07-18

10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES   Impact Factor & Quartile

1561-8633

1684-9981

Compound flooding is generated when two or more flood drivers occur simultaneously or in close succession. Multiple drivers can amplify each other and lead to greater impacts than when they occur in isolation. A better understanding of the interdependence between flood drivers would facilitate a more accurate assessment of compound flood risk in coastal regions. This study employed the D-Flow Flexible Mesh model to simulate the historical peak coastal water level, consisting of the storm surge, astronomical tide, and relative sea level rise (RSLR), in Shanghai over the period 1961-2018. It then applies a copula-based methodology to calculate the joint probability of peak water level and rainfall during historical tropical cyclones (TCs) and to calculate the marginal contribution of each driver. The results indicate that the astronomical tide is the leading driver of peak water level, followed by the contribution of the storm surge. In the longer term, the RSLR has significantly amplified the peak water level. This study investigates the dependency of compound flood events in Shanghai on multiple drivers, which helps us to better understand compound floods and provides scientific references for flood risk management and for further studies. The framework developed in this study could be applied to other coastal cities that face the same constraint of unavailable water level records.

SCI

English

Corresponding

National Key R&D Program of China[2019YFE0124800] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China["51761135024","41971199"] ; Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)[LWSD.2016.007] ; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK[R034214/1] ; Shanghai Science and Technology Support Program[19DZ1201505] ; Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China[18ZDA105] ; ECNU Academic Innovation Promotion Program for Excellent Doctoral Students[YBNLTS2020035]

Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources

WOS:000826518500001

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH

GEOSCIENCES

Web of Science

1.East China Normal Univ, Inst EcoChongming IEC, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
2.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
4.Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn & Geosci, Dept Hydraul Engn, Delft, Netherlands
5.Peng Cheng Lab, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
6.SOAS Univ London, Sch Finance & Management, London WC1H 0XG, England
7.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD USA
8.Deltares, Delft, Netherlands
9.Univ Michigan, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ann Arbor, MI USA
10.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai, Peoples R China
11.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Key Lab Trop Atmosphere Ocean Syst, Minist Educ, Zhuhai, Peoples R China
12.Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, London, England

Xu, Hanqing,Tian, Zhan,Sun, Laixiang,et al. Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2022,22(7).

Xu, Hanqing.,Tian, Zhan.,Sun, Laixiang.,Ye, Qinghua.,Ragno, Elisa.,...&Toumi, Ralf.(2022).Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai.NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,22(7).

Xu, Hanqing,et al."Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai".NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 22.7(2022).