中文版 | English
Title

Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation

Author
Corresponding AuthorWang, Dashan; Zeng, Zhenzhong
Publication Years
2022-08-18
DOI
Source Title
ISSN
2397-3722
Volume5Issue:1
Abstract
The sixth assessment report of the IPCC indicates low-to-high confidence in trends of extreme rainfall with regional inconsistency in the tropics, where a key phenomenon causing intra-seasonal variations in weather is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It remains unknown how the MJO-induced extreme rainfall and the societal exposure may change in response to global warming and climate mitigation attempts. Here, using eight CMIP6 models that capture the eastward-propagating MJO structure and amplitude, we detect a nearly 60% increase in extreme rainfall over tropical Asia and Australia by the end of the 21st century under the fossil-fueled warming scenario (SSP5-8.5); 84% of this change is associated with MJO-induced extreme rainfall. Extreme rainfall increases are modulated by the warming-induced asymmetric changes in MJO phase characteristics, occurring mostly over the lands with distinct zonal differences. The region that is most likely to be affected includes Malaysia, Indonesia, and northern Australia where 96.68 million people and 9.72 million km(2) of urban areas are exposed to potential danger stemming from extreme rainfall. More than 95% (99%) of the population (urban) exposure can be potentially avoided under the "middle of the road" development (SSP24.5) scenario, whereby CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid-century.
URL[Source Record]
Indexed By
Language
English
SUSTech Authorship
First ; Corresponding
Funding Project
National Natural Science Foundation of China["42071022","42001321"] ; Southern University of Science and Technology[29/Y01296122] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2021T140292]
WOS Research Area
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS Subject
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS Accession No
WOS:000841755500001
Publisher
Data Source
Web of Science
Citation statistics
Cited Times [WOS]:1
Document TypeJournal Article
Identifierhttp://kc.sustech.edu.cn/handle/2SGJ60CL/382559
DepartmentSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
Affiliation
1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
2.Maejo Univ, Fac Fisheries Technol & Aquat Resources, Chiang Mai, Thailand
3.Sorbonne Univ, Ecole Polytech, Ecole Normale Super, Lab Meteorol Dynam,Ctr Natl Rech Sci, Paris, France
First Author AffilicationSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
Corresponding Author AffilicationSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
First Author's First AffilicationSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liang, Shijing,Wang, Dashan,Ziegler, Alan D.,et al. Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation[J]. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2022,5(1).
APA
Liang, Shijing,Wang, Dashan,Ziegler, Alan D.,Li, Laurent Z. X.,&Zeng, Zhenzhong.(2022).Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,5(1).
MLA
Liang, Shijing,et al."Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5.1(2022).
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