Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation

Liang, Shijing1; Wang, Dashan1; Ziegler, Alan D.2; Li, Laurent Z. X.3; Zeng, Zhenzhong1

2022-08-18

10.1038/s41612-022-00291-1

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science   Impact Factor & Quartile

2397-3722

The sixth assessment report of the IPCC indicates low-to-high confidence in trends of extreme rainfall with regional inconsistency in the tropics, where a key phenomenon causing intra-seasonal variations in weather is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It remains unknown how the MJO-induced extreme rainfall and the societal exposure may change in response to global warming and climate mitigation attempts. Here, using eight CMIP6 models that capture the eastward-propagating MJO structure and amplitude, we detect a nearly 60% increase in extreme rainfall over tropical Asia and Australia by the end of the 21st century under the fossil-fueled warming scenario (SSP5-8.5); 84% of this change is associated with MJO-induced extreme rainfall. Extreme rainfall increases are modulated by the warming-induced asymmetric changes in MJO phase characteristics, occurring mostly over the lands with distinct zonal differences. The region that is most likely to be affected includes Malaysia, Indonesia, and northern Australia where 96.68 million people and 9.72 million km(2) of urban areas are exposed to potential danger stemming from extreme rainfall. More than 95% (99%) of the population (urban) exposure can be potentially avoided under the "middle of the road" development (SSP24.5) scenario, whereby CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid-century.

SCI

English

First ; Corresponding

National Natural Science Foundation of China["42071022","42001321"] ; Southern University of Science and Technology[29/Y01296122] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2021T140292]

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:000841755500001

NATURE PORTFOLIO

Web of Science

1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
2.Maejo Univ, Fac Fisheries Technol & Aquat Resources, Chiang Mai, Thailand
3.Sorbonne Univ, Ecole Polytech, Ecole Normale Super, Lab Meteorol Dynam,Ctr Natl Rech Sci, Paris, France

Liang, Shijing,Wang, Dashan,Ziegler, Alan D.,et al. Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation[J]. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,2022,5(1).

Liang, Shijing,Wang, Dashan,Ziegler, Alan D.,Li, Laurent Z. X.,&Zeng, Zhenzhong.(2022).Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science,5(1).

Liang, Shijing,et al."Madden-Julian Oscillation-induced extreme rainfalls constrained by global warming mitigation".npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5.1(2022).