Modeling the control of COVID-19: Impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors

Jia，Jiwei1,2; Ding，Jian1; Liu，Siyu3; Liao，Guidong1; Li，Jingzhi4; Duan，B. E.N.5; Wang，Guoqing6; Zhang，R. A.N.1,2

2020

Electronic Journal of Differential Equations   Impact Factor & Quartile

1072-6691

In this article we propose a dynamical model with seven compart ments to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in China. The home quarantine strategy has played a vital role in controlling the disease spread. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is obtained. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed. Attention that the quarantine period must be long enough. Once the control strategy is removed, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. In the study, a comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors. The effectiveness of vaccination is also considered in the model. We design detailed vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of large scale vaccination.

COVID-19 Dynamical model Isolation strategy Meteorological index Vaccination strategy

English

Others

National Natural Science Foundation of China[11901234];National Natural Science Foundation of China[11926104];National Natural Science Foundation of China[41704116];

2-s2.0-85084360544

Scopus

1.School of Mathematics,Jilin University,Changchun,130012,China
2.Interdisciplinary Center of Jilin Province for Applied Mathematics,Changchun,130012,China
3.School of Public Health,Jilin University,Changchun,130021,China
4.Department of Mathematics,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
5.School of Mathematical Sciences,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian,116024,China
6.School of Basic Medical Science,Jilin University,Changchun,130021,China

Jia，Jiwei,Ding，Jian,Liu，Siyu,et al. Modeling the control of COVID-19: Impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors[J]. Electronic Journal of Differential Equations,2020,2020.

Jia，Jiwei.,Ding，Jian.,Liu，Siyu.,Liao，Guidong.,Li，Jingzhi.,...&Zhang，R. A.N..(2020).Modeling the control of COVID-19: Impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors.Electronic Journal of Differential Equations,2020.

Jia，Jiwei,et al."Modeling the control of COVID-19: Impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors".Electronic Journal of Differential Equations 2020(2020).