Prediction of Nitrogen Emission in the Upper Reaches of the Huai River Basin Under Climate Change Scenarios 气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究

Hou，Yue1,2,3; Xu，Chengdong1,2; Liu，Wei4; Yin，Qian1,2

2022-08-25

10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.210546

地球信息科学学报   Impact Factor & Quartile

1560-8999

The Huai River Basin is an area where water bodies are seriously polluted by nutrients. Using data from the Huaibin Basin in the upper reaches of the Huai River as the study area, we created the SWAT model for the study area firstly. And then calibrated and validated the SWAT model against the monthly runoff and ammonia nitrogen concentration measured at Huaibin hydrological station from 2011 to 2017. At last, the potential impact of climate change on the runoff, ammonia nitrogen concentration and non-point source total nitrogen load under different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) in the 30 years (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049) were predicted based on the climate data from Global Climate Model as the model input. The study found that the Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient of the runoff during the calibration period and the validation period were both 0.79, and the Nash-Suttcliffe coefficients of the ammonia nitrogen during the calibration period and the validation period were both higher than 0.5, so the applicability of the model was generally good. The main factors affecting the spatial stratified heterogeneity of nitrogen load were the amount of fertilization and the type of land use. The prediction of the Huaibin Basin indicated that before 2049 precipitation and temperature will increase under different climate change scenarios. If the current status of pollution emissions unchanged, the total nitrogen load from non-point source in the basin will increase by up to 31.8%, while the annual average ammonia nitrogen concentration at the outlet of the basin located at the Huaibin hydrological station will decrease by up to 42.6%. The study can provide scientific support for making basin management policies under the pressing challenges from climate change in the future.

Climate change GeoDetector Huaibin Basin Non-point source pollution Spatial stratified heterogeneity SWAT model

EI

Chinese

Others

National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1302504];National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFC1807404];National Natural Science Foundation of China[41531179];National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971357];National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071375];

20223712730166

Ammonia ; Calibration ; Climate models ; Land use ; Nitrogen ; River pollution ; Runoff

Urban and Regional Planning and Development:403 ; Flood Control:442.1 ; Meteorology:443 ; Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Surface Water:444.1 ; Water Pollution:453 ; Chemical Products Generally:804 ; Inorganic Compounds:804.2 ; Mathematics:921

2-s2.0-85137615856

Scopus

1.State Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental Information Systems,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100101,China
2.University of Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing,100049,China
3.Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research,Beijing,100190,China
4.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China

Hou，Yue,Xu，Chengdong,Liu，Wei,等. Prediction of Nitrogen Emission in the Upper Reaches of the Huai River Basin Under Climate Change Scenarios 气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报,2022,24(8):1558-1574.

Hou，Yue,Xu，Chengdong,Liu，Wei,&Yin，Qian.(2022).Prediction of Nitrogen Emission in the Upper Reaches of the Huai River Basin Under Climate Change Scenarios 气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究.地球信息科学学报,24(8),1558-1574.

Hou，Yue,et al."Prediction of Nitrogen Emission in the Upper Reaches of the Huai River Basin Under Climate Change Scenarios 气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究".地球信息科学学报 24.8(2022):1558-1574.