High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago

Hou，Kun1; Zhang，Liqiang2; Xu，Xia3; Yang，Feng4; Chen，Baozhang1; Hu，Wei5; Shu，Rui6

2023-01-15

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158846

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT   Impact Factor & Quartile

0048-9697

1879-1026

Urban crime (UC) seriously affects the security and stability of the communities and society. However, the effects of external temperatures on the risk of UC are still confusing. We quantitatively estimated the effects of high and low temperatures on UC in Chicago. After controlling for the confounding factors, we found that high temperature has a positive promoting effect on UC, for non-domestic crime, the effect occurs at lag day 0 with a maximum risk of 1.40 (95%CI, 1.34–1.46) compared to a risk of 1 at temperature of −12.3 °C, and decreased as the lag day increased. The effect of low temperature is not significant for UC. Heat waves above the 99th percentile with a duration of 4.5–5.5 days exert a significant positive impact on non-domestic crime of UC. Our findings confirm the adverse promotion effect of high temperature on UC risk, and effective individual behavior guidance and administrative intervention are of great significance for reducing the risk of UC under specific high temperature environment.

Heat waves High temperatures Lag effect Risk Urban crime

SCI

English

Others

Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology[2022r041];

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Environmental Sciences

WOS:000871095200011

ELSEVIER

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

2-s2.0-85139000916

Scopus

1.School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,210044,China
2.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875,China
3.Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing,210029,China
4.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
5.College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua,Zhejiang,321004,China
6.School of Public Administration,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan,430074,China

Hou，Kun,Zhang，Liqiang,Xu，Xia,et al. High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2023,856.

Hou，Kun.,Zhang，Liqiang.,Xu，Xia.,Yang，Feng.,Chen，Baozhang.,...&Shu，Rui.(2023).High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,856.

Hou，Kun,et al."High ambient temperatures are associated with urban crime risk in Chicago".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 856(2023).