Impact of climate change on coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts

Xiong，Jianzhi1,2; Zheng，Yi2,3; Zhang，Jingjie2,4; Quan，Feng2,3; Lu，Haiyan2,3; Zeng，Hui1

2023

10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116557

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT   Impact Factor & Quartile

0301-4797

1095-8630

The impact of climate change on nearshore coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts (e.g., the development of green and gray water infrastructure) still lack systematic investigation. This study performed a holistic analysis of the impact of climate change on the salinity and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (Chl.a) in Shenzhen Bay between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the two most developed megacities in South China, based on three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling. The major study findings were as follows. First, Chl.a was the most sensitive parameter, and its bay-wide average concentration in 2100 was predicted to be approximately 13% and 46% higher than those in 2015 under mild and rapid climate change scenarios, respectively. Second, sea level rise was found to be a major driver of all four water quality parameters, while temperature and radiation mainly influenced Chl.a and precipitation mainly influenced nutrients. Third, water quality responses to climate change were highly heterogeneous over the bay. Even under a mild climate change scenario, the highest location-specific changes (2100 vs. 2015) in salinity and TN, TP and Chl.a concentrations were projected to be approximately 21%, 19%, 25%, and 65%, respectively. Fourth, changes in seasonal variation due to climate change may lead to an enhanced ecological risk of algal blooms. Finally, the effect of reducing TN and TP concentrations by proposed water infrastructure development was found to be significantly weakened (nearly 40% and 20% for TN and TP, respectively, under a mild climate change scenario), while the negative effect (i.e., increase in the Chl.a concentration) was notably accelerated. Regional cooperation is critical for protecting the water quality of the bay, particularly under climate change. The insights obtained in this study are applicable to other coastal water zones around the world with similar socioeconomic backgrounds and climatic conditions.

Climate change Coastal waters Delft3D Green and gray infrastructure Pearl River Estuary Water quality

SCI

English

Corresponding

National Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China[42130402];National Outstanding Youth Science Fund Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China[51961125203];Science, Technology and Innovation Commission of Shenzhen Municipality[KCXFZ202002011006491];

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Environmental Sciences

WOS:000889855700004

ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

2-s2.0-85140359883

Scopus

1.School of Urban Planning and Design,Shenzhen Graduate School,Peking University,Shenzhen,Guangdong Province,518055,China
2.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,Guangdong Province,518055,China
3.Shenzhen Municipal Engineering Lab of Environmental IoT Technologies,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,Guangdong Province,518055,China
4.NUS Environmental Research Institute,National University of Singapore,117577,Singapore

Xiong，Jianzhi,Zheng，Yi,Zhang，Jingjie,et al. Impact of climate change on coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2023,325.

Xiong，Jianzhi,Zheng，Yi,Zhang，Jingjie,Quan，Feng,Lu，Haiyan,&Zeng，Hui.(2023).Impact of climate change on coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,325.

Xiong，Jianzhi,et al."Impact of climate change on coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 325(2023).