中文版 | English
Title

Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events

Author
Corresponding AuthorZhang,Gengxi
Publication Years
2022-11-01
DOI
Source Title
EISSN
2328-4277
Volume10Issue:11
Abstract
Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future changes in CDHEs and population exposure are estimated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios (SSPs) at first. And then the driving forces behind these changes are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of CDHEs is expected to increase by larger magnitudes by the end of the 21st century (the 2080s) than that by the mid-21st century (2050s). Correspondingly, population exposure to CDHEs is expected to increase significantly responding to higher global warming (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) but is limited to a relatively low level under the modest emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6). Globally, compared to 1985–2014, the exposure is expected to increase by 8.5 and 7.7 times under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by the 2080s, respectively. Regionally, Sahara has the largest increase in population exposure to CDHEs, followed by the Mediterranean, Northeast America, Central America, Africa, and Central Asia. The contribution of climate change to the increase of exposure is about 75% by the 2080s under the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while that of population change is much lower. The conclusion highlights the importance and urgency of implementing mitigation strategies to alleviate the influence of CDHEs on human society.
Keywords
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Indexed By
Language
English
SUSTech Authorship
Others
Funding Project
Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province[205080691];National Natural Science Foundation of China[51879222];National Natural Science Foundation of China[52079111];
WOS Accession No
WOS:000879385800001
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85143207191
Data Source
Scopus
Citation statistics
Cited Times [WOS]:2
Document TypeJournal Article
Identifierhttp://kc.sustech.edu.cn/handle/2SGJ60CL/416506
DepartmentSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
Affiliation
1.College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou,China
2.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A & F University,Yangling,China
3.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Alberta,Edmonton,Canada
4.School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang,Gengxi,Wang,Huimin,Gan,Thian Yew,et al. Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events[J]. Earth's Future,2022,10(11).
APA
Zhang,Gengxi.,Wang,Huimin.,Gan,Thian Yew.,Zhang,Shuyu.,Shi,Lijie.,...&Song,Songbai.(2022).Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events.Earth's Future,10(11).
MLA
Zhang,Gengxi,et al."Climate Change Determines Future Population Exposure to Summertime Compound Dry and Hot Events".Earth's Future 10.11(2022).
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