青藏高原冻土退化规律及水文响应机制研究

冻土（包括季节性冻土和多年冻土）是寒区地表与地下之间水热交互的媒介。气候变化导致的冻土退化通过改变寒区土壤层的水力、热力条件影响区域水文循环和生态效应。青藏高原作为“亚洲水塔”，绝大部分地区上覆季节性冻土和多年冻土，研究气候变化影响下青藏高原冻土退化规律及其水文响应机制对预估和应对气候变化对水资源和生态环境的影响具有重要的意义。然而，在气候变化影响下，青藏高原季节性冻土退化规律尚不清楚，多年冻土对气候变化的响应机制尚不完善，气候—冻土—水文之间的相互作用机理尚不明晰，亟需开展相关研究。针对以上科学问题，本文通过梳理冻土观测、水文观测和冻土水文模型相关研究成果，基于地温方程、热传输模型、水热耦合模型和三维水文模型等研究方法，就青藏高原冻土退化规律及水文响应机制展开系统研究。本文是对已有研究的拓展和延伸，也为提高气候—冻土—水文复杂系统的认识和流域水资源管理提供理论基础和实证支撑。本文的主要内容包括：基于能量传递的损耗和时间滞后，考虑土壤热扩散率的空间非均质性，建立了地温—季节性冻土深度模型，探究季节性冻土时空分布特征及其退化趋势。研究表明，1980—2010年，雅鲁藏布江流域的季节性冻土深度自西北向东南递减，且以2.50cm·a^-1的平均速率下降，西北上游地区比东南下游地区下降更为剧烈。在RCP8.5情景下，雅鲁藏布江流域的季节性冻土将继续退化，预计到2180年几近消失。基于热传输模型，在综合考虑土壤类型、植被类型、土壤含水量变化对潜热过程的影响的基础上，增加了土壤含水量和土壤粒度对感热过程的影响，提高了活动层厚度模型的计算精度，探究多年冻土时空分布特征及其退化趋势，分析土壤含水量和土壤粒度对多年冻土退化的影响机制。研究表明，1981—2020年，青藏高原多年冻土区活动层以平均1.77cm·a^-1的速率变厚；模型预估表明，在SSP5-8.5气候模式情景下，未来时期青藏高原的活动层厚度将继续增加，预计到2100年可能接近4m，多年冻土继续退化。土壤变湿减缓了活动层增厚的趋势，在土壤变湿对活动层厚度的影响中，相比导热系数（感热），潜热起主导作用。在气候变暖的背景下，忽略土壤含水量的影响可能会高估青藏高原的活动层厚度，即高估多年冻土退化的速率。在相似的环境条件下，粗粒土的活动层比细粒土对气候变化的响应更剧烈。

基于Budyko-Fu模型，考虑多年冻土退化导致的下垫面条件改变，改进了活动层—水热耦合模型，探究蒸散发对多年冻土退化的响应机制；在三维水文模型中，考虑冻土冻融过程，建立了三维冻土—水文耦合模型，探究径流和基流对冻土退化的响应机制。研究表明，青藏高原多年冻土区1982—2018年间蒸散发整体上以3.57mm/a（p<0.05）的速率显著增加。活动层厚度的增加会导致蒸散发的增大，不考虑冻土退化会使得蒸散发被低估约2.2%。多年冻土退化对蒸散发的影响存在空间差异性，土壤有效含水量和植被覆盖度较低的地区对冻土退化的响应更敏感。在雅鲁藏布江流域，冻土退化对夏季直接径流的影响在融化期初期和后期存在差异:在融化期初期由于土壤层的蓄水能力增大，导致地表直接径流减少，最大减少约2%；融化期后期由于土壤层内部逐渐饱和，地表直接径流增大，最大增大约9%。冻土退化使得基流量增大，且基流变化相比冻土不退化情景有时间滞后性。其中，夏季基流最大增大约8%，冬季冻结期初期基流最大增大约2%，而冻土退化对冬季冻结期后期基流的影响极小，可以忽略不计。

综上所述，本文系统地探讨了气候变化影响下青藏高原季节性冻土和多年冻土的退化情况及未来演变趋势，深入理解了冻土退化的影响机制，揭示了冻土退化的水文响应，增进了对气候一冻土—水文多圈层复杂系统相互作用的认识，丰富了高寒区冻土水文学理论，对高寒流域的水资源管理、规划及政策制定提供重要的理论基础和科学依据。

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