Climate change and human activity impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta based on the MaxEnt model

Zuo, Daxing1; Wu, Chunyi2; Zheng, Yanhui3,4; Chen, Xiaohong5,6,7; Wang, Lina1

2023-01-12

10.3389/feart.2022.1053829

FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE   Impact Factor & Quartile

2296-6463

In the background of global climate change and rapid urbanization, extreme climate events are frequent, and highly urbanized areas flooding problems are becoming increasingly prominent. It becomes important to develop qualitative scenario storylines to assess future flooding risk in a changing environment over the highly urbanized areas. In this study, the future (2030-2050) flood risk in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China was assessed based on the MaxEnt model. We have developed four future scenarios under different emission conditions based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The MaxEnt model was trained by using flood hazard sample point data and flood risk indicators, meanwhile, food risk prediction with high accuracy was obtained. We analyzed the influencing factors of flood risk and predicted the flood risk of the PRD under four future scenarios. According to the results, there is a significant increase in the size and proportion of high flood risk areas in most scenarios. Flood risk under scenario SSP5-RCP8.5 are expected to be the most serious in the future. Population density (POPD) and Gross domestic product density (GDPD) have the highest explanatory power for flood risk. This study predict the changes of flood risk under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, and hoped to provide a reference for future planning and disaster mitigation construction in PRD cities.

Flood risk Climate change MaxEnt model RCP scenarios SSP scenarios The Pearl River Delta

SCI

English

Others

National Natural Science Foundation of China["U1911204","52209025"] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2021YFC3001000]

Geology

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

WOS:000922692300001

FRONTIERS MEDIA SA

Web of Science

1.South China Normal Univ, Sch Geog, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
2.Minist Water Resources, Bur Hydrol, Pearl River Resources Commisson, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
4.Franzero Water Technol Co LTD, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
5.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
6.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong Engn Technol Res Ctr Water Secur Regulat, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
7.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong High Educ Inst, Key Lab Water Cycle & Water Secur Southern China, Guangzhou, Peoples R China

Zuo, Daxing,Wu, Chunyi,Zheng, Yanhui,et al. Climate change and human activity impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta based on the MaxEnt model[J]. FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE,2023,10.

Zuo, Daxing,Wu, Chunyi,Zheng, Yanhui,Chen, Xiaohong,&Wang, Lina.(2023).Climate change and human activity impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta based on the MaxEnt model.FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE,10.

Zuo, Daxing,et al."Climate change and human activity impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta based on the MaxEnt model".FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE 10(2023).