| Title | Real-Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon-King Detection |
| Author | |
| Corresponding Author | Lei, Qinghua |
| Publication Years | 2023-03-28
|
| DOI | |
| Source Title | |
| ISSN | 0094-8276
|
| EISSN | 1944-8007
|
| Volume | 50Issue:6 |
| Abstract | Catastrophic landslides characterized by runaway slope failures remain difficult to predict. Here, we develop a physics-based framework to prospectively assess slope failure potential. Our method builds upon the physics of extreme events in natural systems: the extremes so-called "dragon-kings" (e.g., slope tertiary creeps prior to failure) exhibit statistically different properties than other smaller-sized events (e.g., slope secondary creeps). We develop statistical tools to detect the emergence of dragon-kings during landslide evolution, with the secondary-to-tertiary creep transition quantitatively captured. We construct a phase diagram characterizing the detectability of dragon-kings against "black-swans" and informing on whether the slope evolves toward a catastrophic or slow landslide. We test our method on synthetic and real data sets, demonstrating how it might have been used to forecast three representative historical landslides. Our method can in principle considerably reduce the number of false alarms and identify with high confidence the presence of true hazards of catastrophic landslides. |
| Keywords | |
| URL | [Source Record] |
| Indexed By | |
| Language | English
|
| Important Publications | NI Journal Papers
|
| SUSTech Authorship | Others
|
| Funding Project | Swiss National Science Foundation[172492]
; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2039202]
; Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission[GJHZ20210705141805017]
|
| WOS Research Area | Geology
|
| WOS Subject | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
|
| WOS Accession No | WOS:000948571300001
|
| Publisher | |
| ESI Research Field | GEOSCIENCES
|
| Data Source | Web of Science
|
| Citation statistics |
Cited Times [WOS]:0
|
| Document Type | Journal Article |
| Identifier | http://kc.sustech.edu.cn/handle/2SGJ60CL/513406 |
| Department | Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies |
| Affiliation | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Earth Sci, Zurich, Switzerland 2.Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden 3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Inst Risk Anal Predict & Management, Acad Adv Interdisciplinary Studies, Shenzhen, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 |
Lei, Qinghua,Sornette, Didier,Yang, Haonan,et al. Real-Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon-King Detection[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2023,50(6).
|
| APA |
Lei, Qinghua,Sornette, Didier,Yang, Haonan,&Loew, Simon.(2023).Real-Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon-King Detection.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,50(6).
|
| MLA |
Lei, Qinghua,et al."Real-Time Forecast of Catastrophic Landslides via Dragon-King Detection".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 50.6(2023).
|
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