中文版 | English
Title

Exploring the impacts of climate change and human activities on future runoff variations at the seasonal scale

Author
Corresponding AuthorDeng, Lele
Publication Years
2023-04
DOI
Source Title
ISSN
0022-1694
EISSN
1879-2707
Volume619
Abstract
Most watersheds around the world have been changing their natural flow patterns because of the coupled effects of climate change and human activities. Understanding the quantitative impacts of projected climate and human factors on future runoff variations is essential for adaptability assessment of water resource management, especially at the seasonal scale where their intra-annual changes are detected. In this study, an extended Budyko framework that combines traditional elasticity and decomposition methods is developed to analyze future seasonal runoff variations. The upper reach of the Hanjiang River basin (UHRB) in China is used as a case study. The case results are quantified and compared with the monthly ABCD model using historical hydrometeorological observations over 1961–2020 and near-future climate projections over 2031–2060 from the multi-model ensemble of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). We find that: (1) human activities including the operation of the Han-to-Wei inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) and reforestation projects have a substantial negative impact on runoff reduction in this region, accounting for a proportion of ∼70% in energy-limited seasons and ∼65% in water-limited seasons; and (2) the role of climate change projected by ISIMIP3b will intensify in energy-limited seasons, especially under the high-emission scenario with the increasing trend of effective precipitation,. Additionally, the performance of our extended Budyko framework is sufficiently robust to parameter disturbance experiments, indicating its applicability as an alternative for exploring future seasonal runoff variations.
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords
URL[Source Record]
Indexed By
EI ; SCI
Language
English
SUSTech Authorship
First
Funding Project
This work is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52269003 ), and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ( 2022M711493 ). The authors would like to thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that are greatly contributive to enriching the manuscript.
WOS Research Area
Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS Subject
Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS Accession No
WOS:000951951300001
Publisher
EI Accession Number
20231113735569
EI Keywords
Climate models ; Reforestation ; Runoff ; Water management ; Watersheds
ESI Classification Code
Flood Control:442.1 ; Meteorology:443 ; Atmospheric Properties:443.1 ; Surface Water:444.1 ; Agricultural Equipment and Methods; Vegetation and Pest Control:821 ; Mathematics:921
ESI Research Field
ENGINEERING
Data Source
EV Compendex
Citation statistics
Cited Times [WOS]:0
Document TypeJournal Article
Identifierhttp://kc.sustech.edu.cn/handle/2SGJ60CL/519691
DepartmentSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
Affiliation
1.School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen; 518055, China
2.Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan; 430010, China
3.Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering, Nanchang; 330029, China
4.State Key Lab. of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan; 430072, China
First Author AffilicationSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
First Author's First AffilicationSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
He, Shaokun,Chen, Kebing,Liu, Zhangjun,et al. Exploring the impacts of climate change and human activities on future runoff variations at the seasonal scale[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2023,619.
APA
He, Shaokun,Chen, Kebing,Liu, Zhangjun,&Deng, Lele.(2023).Exploring the impacts of climate change and human activities on future runoff variations at the seasonal scale.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,619.
MLA
He, Shaokun,et al."Exploring the impacts of climate change and human activities on future runoff variations at the seasonal scale".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 619(2023).
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