Insights from CMIP6 SSP scenarios for future characteristics of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin

Zhou，Zhaoqiang1,2,3; Ding，Yibo4; Fu，Qiang1; Wang，Can2,3; Wang，Yao2,3; Cai，Hejiang3,5; Liu，Suning3; Huang，Shengzhi6; Shi，Haiyun2,3

2023-11-15

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165618

Science of the Total Environment   Impact Factor & Quartile

0048-9697

1879-1026

Drought is a common and widely distributed natural hazard. Analyzing and predicting drought characteristics and propagation are important for the early warning, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. This study used the precipitation and runoff outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate the meteorological drought (MD) and hydrological drought (HD) characteristics in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The propagation characteristics of external propagation (response between different type of drought) and internal propagation (drought development and recovery stages of a single type of drought) were also comprehensively investigated based on CMIP6. The results revealed that: 1) the percentage of grids within the dry range of MD and HD will decrease from the historical period to the future period under the two scenarios. The PRB is projected to exhibit wetter patterns; 2) Higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5) are more likely to weaken dryness conditions; 3) regarding the external propagation, the drought response time from MD to HD would be 2 months, and there would be no significant change under two scenarios; and 4) regarding the internal propagation, during three study periods (1971–2010, 2021–2060 and 2061–2100), the MD (HD) average recovery time changed from 3.90 (3.36) to 3.75 (3.41) and then to 3.95 (3.43) months under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and changed from 3.93 (3.46) to 3 (3.51) and then to 3.7 (3.25) months under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These results aid in understanding future drought characteristics and drought propagation under climate change.

CMIP6 Drought propagation Drought recovery time Drought response time

SCI

English

Corresponding

Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Precision Measurement and Early Warning Technology for Urban Environmental Health Risks[ZDSYS20220606100604008] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shenzhen[JCYJ20210324105014039]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Environmental Sciences

WOS:001050847100001

ELSEVIER

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

2-s2.0-85165937577

Scopus

1.School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,China
2.Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Precision Measurement and Early Warning Technology for Urban Environmental Health Risks,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,Guangdong,China
3.State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Pollution Control,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,Guangdong,China
4.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou,450003,China
5.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,National University of Singapore,Singapore
6.State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an,China

Zhou，Zhaoqiang,Ding，Yibo,Fu，Qiang,et al. Insights from CMIP6 SSP scenarios for future characteristics of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2023,899.

Zhou，Zhaoqiang.,Ding，Yibo.,Fu，Qiang.,Wang，Can.,Wang，Yao.,...&Shi，Haiyun.(2023).Insights from CMIP6 SSP scenarios for future characteristics of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin.Science of the Total Environment,899.

Zhou，Zhaoqiang,et al."Insights from CMIP6 SSP scenarios for future characteristics of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin".Science of the Total Environment 899(2023).