Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China

Li，Yilong1; Xin，Danhua1; Zhang，Zhenguo1,2

2023-09-01

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103708

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction   Impact Factor & Quartile

2212-4209

In order to estimate the post-earthquake losses in Mainland China, this paper develops a set of economic loss estimation models for Mainland China based on fixed asset data and the damaging information compiled in the Mainland China composite damaging earthquake catalog (MCCDE-CAT). Considering the differences in seismicity and economic development levels across China, these estimation models are developed separately for different sub-regions. Before performing regression analysis, the Human development index (HDI) is used to normalize the economic loss ratio from earthquake occurrence to the present. The robustness and effectiveness of the loss estimation models are verified by separating the loss information in MCCDE-CAT into sample and test data. According to the loss estimation models developed and the normal distribution characteristics of the residuals between modeled and recorded loss data, the probability of different ranges of predicted earthquake economic loss can be determined. Finally, the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake is taken as an example to demonstrate the application of our developed loss estimation model. The good consistency between the economic loss estimated based on post-earthquake investigations and the predicted economic loss range by our model further indicates the applicability of the model in rapid post-earthquake loss estimation. In the future, the economic loss estimation method will provide scientific guidance in post-earthquake government reconstruction decision-making and international humanitarian assistance. This method is also applicable to disaster loss estimation in any country and region in the world.

Disaster assessment Earthquake economic loss Estimation model Fixed assets Human development index

SCI

English

First ; Corresponding

National Natural Science Foundation of China[41922024];National Natural Science Foundation of China[42204054];

Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources

WOS:001059517600001

ELSEVIER

2-s2.0-85167835881

Scopus

1.Department of Earth and Space Sciences,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China
2.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology,Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen,518055,China

Li，Yilong,Xin，Danhua,Zhang，Zhenguo. Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2023,95.

Li，Yilong,Xin，Danhua,&Zhang，Zhenguo.(2023).Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,95.

Li，Yilong,et al."Estimating the economic loss caused by earthquake in Mainland China".International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 95(2023).