Attribution of the Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation Events in July 2021 Over Central and Eastern China to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Wang, Liangyi1,2; Gu, Xihui1,3,4,5,6; Slater, Louise J.7; Lai, Yangchen2; Zheng, Yanhui8,9; Gong, Jie10; Dembele, Moctar7,11; Tosunoglu, Fatih12; Liu, Jianyu13; Zhang, Xiang14; Kong, Dongdong1,6; Li, Jianfeng2

2023-09-01

10.1029/2023EF003613

EARTHS FUTURE   Impact Factor & Quartile

2328-4277

In July 2021, Typhoon In-Fa produced record-breaking extreme precipitation events (hereafter referred to as the 2021 EPEs) in central and eastern China, and caused serious socioeconomic losses and casualties. However, it is still unknown whether the 2021 EPEs can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and how the occurrence probabilities of precipitation events of a similar magnitude might evolve in the future. The 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China occurred in the context of no linear trend (a significantly increasing trend at a rate of 4.44%/decade) in the region-averaged Rx5day (summer maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation) percentage precipitation anomaly (PPA), indicating that global warming might have no impact on the 2021 EPE in central China but might have impacted the 2021 EPE in eastern China by increasing the long-term trend of EPEs. Using the scaled generalized extreme value distribution, we detected a slightly negative (significantly positive) association of the Rx5day PPA time series in central (eastern) China with the global mean temperature anomaly, suggesting that global warming might have no (a detectable) contribution to the changes in occurrence probability of precipitation extremes like the 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China. Historical attributions (1961-2020) showed that the likelihood of the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China decreased/increased by approximately +47% (-23% to +89%)/+55% (-45% to +201%) due to ACC. By the end of the 21st century, the likelihood of precipitation extremes similar to the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China under SSP585 is 14 (9-19)/15 (9-20) times higher than under historical climate conditions.

extreme precipitation occurrence probability attribution anthropogenic climate change

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English

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This study is supported by the following projects: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants U1911205, 42371041, 41901041, 42001042, and 52209025), the Pre-research Project of SongShan Laboratory (Grant YYYY062022001), Guiding project of Sci["U1911205","42371041","41901041","42001042","52209025"] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[YYYY062022001] ; Pre-research Project of SongShan Laboratory[B2022265] ; Guiding project of Scientific Research Plan of Education Department of Hubei Province[2020B1212030005] ; Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory for Water Security[2021SWG01] ; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science (Wuhan University)["MR/V022008/1","NE/S015728/1"]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

WOS:001069928400001

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

Web of Science

1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan, Peoples R China
2.Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
3.Beijing Normal Univ Zhuhai, Guangdong Hong Kong Joint Lab Water Secur, Zhuhai, Peoples R China
4.SongShan Lab, Zhengzhou, Peoples R China
5.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn Sc, Wuhan, Peoples R China
6.Ctr Severe Weather & Climate & Hydrogeol Hazards, Wuhan, Peoples R China
7.Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England
8.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
9.Guangzhou Franzero Water Technol Co Ltd, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
10.China Univ Geosci, Inst Geol Survey, Wuhan, Peoples R China
11.Int Water Management Inst IWMI, Accra, Ghana
12.Erzurum Tech Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Erzurum, Turkiye
13.China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Lab Crit Zone Evolut, Wuhan, Peoples R China
14.China Univ Geosci, Natl Engn Res Ctr Geog Informat Syst, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan, Peoples R China

Wang, Liangyi,Gu, Xihui,Slater, Louise J.,et al. Attribution of the Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation Events in July 2021 Over Central and Eastern China to Anthropogenic Climate Change[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2023,11(9).

Wang, Liangyi.,Gu, Xihui.,Slater, Louise J..,Lai, Yangchen.,Zheng, Yanhui.,...&Li, Jianfeng.(2023).Attribution of the Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation Events in July 2021 Over Central and Eastern China to Anthropogenic Climate Change.EARTHS FUTURE,11(9).

Wang, Liangyi,et al."Attribution of the Record-Breaking Extreme Precipitation Events in July 2021 Over Central and Eastern China to Anthropogenic Climate Change".EARTHS FUTURE 11.9(2023).