Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Shan, Kaiyue1; Lin, Yanluan2; Chu, Pao-Shin3; Yu, Xiping4; Song, Fengfei5,6,7

2023-09-01

10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0

NATURE   Impact Factor & Quartile

0028-0836

1476-4687

["Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn1,2, have destructive impacts on life and property3-5, making it crucial to determine whether any changes in intense TCs are likely to occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s in most tropical oceans, with earlier-shifting rates of 3.7 and 3.2 days per decade for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This seasonal advance of intense TCs is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles and individual forcing experiments, the earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions is detectable and primarily driven by greenhouse gas forcing. The seasonal advance of intense TCs will increase the likelihood of intersecting with other extreme rainfall events, which usually peak in summer6,7, thereby leading to disproportionate impacts.","We identify a seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones that is closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events, favoured by the observed earlier onset of favourable oceanic conditions."]

SCI

English

NI Journal Papers

Corresponding

We thank the graduate students from the groups of X.Y. and F.S., including C. Wang, S. Zeng, J. Song, S. Lv and Y. Xiang, who helped to download and process the model simulation datasets. This research is jointly supported by the National Natural Science F["12102231","11732008","42175029"] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[LSKJ202202201]

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Multidisciplinary Sciences

WOS:001080913200023

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1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Global Change Studies, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling,Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
4.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Ocean Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
5.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China
6.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
7.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China

Shan, Kaiyue,Lin, Yanluan,Chu, Pao-Shin,et al. Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate[J]. NATURE,2023.

Shan, Kaiyue,Lin, Yanluan,Chu, Pao-Shin,Yu, Xiping,&Song, Fengfei.(2023).Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate.NATURE.

Shan, Kaiyue,et al."Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate".NATURE (2023).