Precipitation and vegetation transpiration variations dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics in China

Guo, Wenwen1; Huang, Shengzhi1; Huang, Qiang1; She, Dunxian2; Shi, Haiyun3; Leng, Guoyong4; Li, Ji4; Cheng, Liwen1; Gao, Yuejiao1; Peng, Jian5,6

2023-11-10

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165480

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT   Impact Factor & Quartile

0048-9697

1879-1026

Agricultural drought posing a significant threat to agricultural production is subject to the complex influence of ocean, terrestrial and meteorological multi-factors. Nevertheless, which factor dominating the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics and their dynamic impact remain equivocal. To address this knowledge gap, we used ERA5 soil moisture to calculate the standardized soil moisture index (SSI) to characterize agricultural drought. The extreme gradient boosting model was then adopted to fully examine the influence of ocean, terrestrial and meteorological multi-factors on agricultural drought characteristics and their dynamics in China. Meanwhile, the Shapley additive explanation values were introduced to quantify the contribution of multiple drivers to drought characteristics. Our analysis reveals that the drought frequency, severity and duration in China ranged from 5-70, 2.15-35.02 and 1.76-31.20, respectively. Drought duration is increasing and drought intensity is intensifying in southeast, north and northwest China. In addition, potential evapotranspiration is the most significant driver of drought characteristics at the basin scale. Regarding the dynamic evolution of drought characteristics, the percentages of raster points for drought duration and severity with evapotranspiration as the dominant factor are 30.7 % and 32.7 %, and the percentages with precipitation are 35.3 % and 35.0 %, respectively. Precipitation in northern regions has a positive effect on decreasing drought characteristics, while in southern regions, evapotranspiration dominates the dynamics in drought characteristics due to increasing vegetation transpiration. Moreover, the drought severity is exacerbated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Yangtze and Pearl River basins, while the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the drought duration evolution is increasing in the Yangtze River basin. Generally, this study sheds new insights into agricultural drought evolution and driving mechanism, which are beneficial for agricultural drought early warning and mitigation.

Editor Christian Herrera Agricultural drought Drought events Drought dynamics Driving factors China

SCI

English

Others

National Natural Science Foundation of China[52279026] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2021YFC3000203] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA28060100] ; Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region[2021ZD12]

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Environmental Sciences

WOS:001046894300001

ELSEVIER

ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY

Web of Science

1.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn Sc, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen Key Lab Precis Measurement & Early Warnin, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Remote Sensing, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany
6.Univ Leipzig, Remote Sensing Ctr Earth Syst Res, Talstr 35, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany

Guo, Wenwen,Huang, Shengzhi,Huang, Qiang,et al. Precipitation and vegetation transpiration variations dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2023,898.

Guo, Wenwen.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Huang, Qiang.,She, Dunxian.,Shi, Haiyun.,...&Peng, Jian.(2023).Precipitation and vegetation transpiration variations dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics in China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,898.

Guo, Wenwen,et al."Precipitation and vegetation transpiration variations dominate the dynamics of agricultural drought characteristics in China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 898(2023).